Steel price trend China in 2022 ?
2021 is about to end in more than ten days, which is destined to be recorded in the history of the iron and steel industry. It can be said that the steel market price in 2021 is ups and downs and touching. Experienced the largest rise in history, but also experienced a historical decline. The sharp rise and fall of prices in May and October caught all parties in the market unprepared. So what is the trend of steel prices in 2022?
Review of steel prices in 2021: an unusual year in steel prices
History repeats itself, but not always alike. The surge high and sweep forward in 2021, the steel price has been a huge historical market. From the first quarter, the economic recovery turned to overheating, the price bubble and the collapse. In the two quarter, market confidence was set up again with the policy of limited production, the three quarter slam the electricity and the fourth quarter stagflation broke the steel price bubble again. The overall market situation can be compared with the 2007-2012 years. History repeats itself in 2021.
However, in this unusual year, the inventory cycle brought by seasonal demand remained unchanged, and the steel price fluctuated with the mood of market participants. Finally, it failed to escape the seasonal law of "easy to fall in peak season and easy to rise in off-season".
"Extraordinary", "great changes", "magnificent", "ups and downs"... These are the key words, which constitute the changeable steel market of the steel industry in 2021. It can be seen from the data released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association. The prices of raw materials such as iron ore rose sharply. The average price of imported iron ore from January to November was 169.9 US dollars / ton, up 64.5% year-on-year; The steel price fluctuated sharply, and has continued to fall from wanton rise at the beginning of the year. From January to November, the average steel price index was 142.96 points, up 37.67% year-on-year; The daily output of crude steel reached an all-time high of 3.2617 million tons in April, and then decreased month on month for six consecutive months. It is expected that the annual output of crude steel in China will be about 1.02 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4-5%.
For the steel industry, 2021 can definitely be described as an unprecedented great change. As the first year of the 14th five year plan, 2021 is an important year for high-quality development and the first year of low-carbon development. From the perspective of the market, 2021 is a year when the prices of black series commodities hit a record high, a year of macro, policy and market, as well as a year of ups and downs and wide opening and closing. Many situations exceed the experience and expectations of the industry.
"This year is a very extraordinary year for the steel industry." Qu Xiuli, vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said: first, major adjustments have taken place in the national industrial policy to implement the dual control of "production capacity and output", cancel the steel export tax rebate, and launch the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization"; Second, the assessment of ultra-low emission transformation and "double control" of energy consumption is strict, and the guarantee of production factors is difficult; Third, domestic and foreign markets fluctuate greatly, commodity prices rise and fall sharply, and the market environment is complex.
Industry insiders also generally believe that 2021 is a turning year for the iron and steel industry. The more than 40 years since the reform and opening up are the golden period for the development of China's iron and steel industry. China has walked out of a magnificent growth cycle from the annual crude steel output of more than 30 million tons at the beginning of reform and opening up to more than 1 billion tons in 2020. The double reduction of supply and demand in the iron and steel industry in 2021 may not be a temporary market contradiction, but may mean the change of the historical cycle.
Steel price trend in 2022: there will be no extreme market of sharp rise and fall
After an extraordinary year, what is the current historical position of the iron and steel industry? What is the trend of steel prices next year? Where will the future go?
Maintaining supply and price stability in 2022 is still the main tone. For the prediction of steel prices in 2022, it is difficult to reproduce the sharp rise and fall, and the overall trend will be gentle. Lu Linying said that at the central economic work conference held not long ago, the conference stressed that China's infrastructure investment will stabilize and recover, steadily improve economic development, and gradually implement the "14th five year plan" projects to drive the overall demand for steel. At the same time, under the tone of "no speculation in housing", the implementation intensity, rhythm and mode of real estate policies may be adjusted, real estate investment may stabilize at a low level, and the area under construction and real estate construction will remain at a high level, which also supports the demand for steel. Meanwhile, in 2022, commodity prices gradually fell and the growth rate of real estate investment was lower than that in 2021. Although steel prices were supported by infrastructure demand, they were not prone to sharp rise and fall. Therefore, with the gradual stabilization of the real estate market and the increase of commencement and construction, the prices of building materials such as steel will pick up. Seasonal commencement will gradually resume in the spring of next year, which will benefit the gradual rise of steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in 2022, and there will be no extreme market of sharp rise and fall.